RECEIPT: free open models on our first 300, and the SEALED PREDICTION for the next 700
Written 2026-09-17T06:45:49Z. Scores recomputed now from raw rows (latest HTTP 200 lettered row per qid).
Sealed prediction
- SHA-256 4551cb9a377385b15c867f419cb20a0a88691da301cb580a7476458321694c1d, hashed 2026-09-16T20:39:38Z, file set read-only.
- Re-hashed now: MATCHES, seal intact.
- Covers: gemma4:12b rest of the 300; the next 700 (pre-chosen, seed 700223045, 0 overlap with the 300) for the six flagships, gemma4:12b, and the substrate way on M0 and M2.
- Headline sealed numbers (from the sealing report): 700 flagships plain Anthropic 92.5, OpenAI 90.3, Google 90.1, xAI 90.1, DeepSeek 87.3, Mistral 64.2 (about $148); gemma4:12b thinking ON 73.2 (53.5 to 87.3); substrate way final 690 of 700 (674 to 697), blind 648, 0 model calls at replay, M2 answers identical to M0.
- Disclosed inside: 80 of the 700 were already minted and scored the substrate way on 2026-09-15 (79 of 80).
- Envelope stays closed until the runs it predicts are complete.
Free open models on the same 300 (no cost)
| model | answered | correct | accuracy | status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| llama3.1:8b (local, M0) | 300 | 95 | 31.7% | complete |
| gemma4:12b thinking ON (local, M0) | 128 | 88 | 68.8% | PARTIAL, run not finished |
| gemma4:12b thinking OFF (local, M0) | 39 | 28 | 71.8% | stopped by the Founder |
| gemma2:2b (local, M2) | 190 strict | 44 | 23.2% | separate run on M2 |
Paid six on the same 300: see six flagships on the first 300. Our cards by code: the first 300 by code.
Evidence files (sha256)
| evidence (run records available to reviewers on request) | bytes | sha256 | what |
|---|---|---|---|
| sealed prediction file | 19126 | 4551cb9a377385b15c867f419cb20a0a88691da301cb580a7476458321694c1d | SEALED PREDICTION (read-only), gemma rest-of-300 and next 700, hashed 2026-09-16T20:39:38Z |
| sealed prediction hash receipt | 4816 | 83b3ba480893656dd0f189053cd2d8ae0298cb02a890369dd1b6db28a8132414 | hash receipt for the sealed prediction |
run record PUBLIC_HASH_LINE.txt | 212 | a6356bbd288489718e4930677d81b620aa6ece7e9d36cbe885126eda26128a4e | public hash line |
run record seal_hash_time.txt | 92 | f874359274391cc9bf2d8cb0f0e5b43e1913b6e07b54b29eaed790f27ab5ea45 | seal hash and time |
run record prediction_calc.json | 9722 | 89bf1239b6578aa77493b6e53c1a4d85d4b75e3191d4670f60336089c2d1d190 | prediction math inputs/outputs |
run record substrate_calc.json | 3868 | 88ebcd69478ba00e0277fed8e3ecc74a3f4ab7aa2f8025384349a355ae247dcf | substrate-arm prediction math |
| run report | 6947 | 1c6a5a17310ba2264b57521457a7b09b4ec61da5d308f8707aee1e683ccf3ecb | sealing report |
run record next700_qids.json | 98807 | 8e6fc82f67fc1a9e50b70eea9db550cdb08907d99adbad8feaa662ab61090807 | the pre-chosen next 700 qids (seed 700223045) |
run record scoreboard_nine_300.json | 101315 | 73b2d6f5d95aa007275c4ab8f0c125dad7dc79f15ab65dc2d66f086db3ca4a8f | nine-model scoreboard (19:10Z; open models partial at that time) |
run record score_nine_300.cjs | 12385 | df29b0ef50dc67d21275ba355378ece654edcb0c606e1e152db4a6db9e2705f8 | nine-model scorer |
run record open300_ollama_llama31_8b.jsonl | 1783806 | 85091db2f427659c403c5641f57a66e40159729aff179caaa3f06636fde52cd4 | raw rows: llama3.1:8b (local, M0) |
run record open300_ollama_gemma4_12b.jsonl.partial | 6124445 | c75a60388e4fa5273e9300c063d2081d18dca9f2275076999f93ab064e2fa61c | raw rows: gemma4:12b thinking ON (local, M0) |
run record plain300_gemma4_12b_thinkoff_M0.jsonl.partial | 243373 | 67be94f370d105e3a648c36ff91f1af2de9dacfe8c823236938326bc3e64964f | raw rows: gemma4:12b thinking OFF (local, M0) |
run record open300_ollama_gemma4_12b.spend.json | 572 | 06fe560ad421c1e3d98cb2627a7a80a4bd91fe41c3e0d7ed7c062697507785e9 | meter / audit / log |
run record open300_ollama_llama31_8b.spend.json | 619 | 942dcef9c65139067879af90d4988d9fdc9e77bd88b01c1e76264282dcf4f9dd | meter / audit / log |
run record open300_ollama_gemma4_12b.DENOMINATOR_AUDIT.json | 361 | 764722383b79be4ca005a95f24b4300e51d91ac78e2fc4706198afc6c7b02572 | meter / audit / log |
run record open300_ollama_llama31_8b.DENOMINATOR_AUDIT.json | 362 | 4ee1731bf0bf2ddaaa7d7dfcfc646ad496e3eccdd7a0e802e453030dc71c4a7d | meter / audit / log |
run record open300_ollama_gemma4_12b.log | 59303 | 3eab4652a4baa059cc85acecb04aad1521d9a947b1f2b7747f8108d254f1ed79 | meter / audit / log |
run record open300_ollama_gemma4_12b_THINKING_ON_PARTIAL.log | 979 | 0b9a684459d7f7ea2a94f0227f2c06fb165671773f63b84a986c5ae741f9a0e9 | meter / audit / log |
run record open300_ollama_llama31_8b.log | 25988 | 1f0babfb623d561ad907fe03582a9c8f23517f4053c5a2dca4a9b3502679ecc0 | meter / audit / log |
run record validate_2q_ollama_llama33_70b.jsonl | 11466 | f9c32b4430ac8139e78849e64f2c899f412d958139aae64d28e528210f714239 | meter / audit / log |
run record plain300_gemma4_12b_thinkoff_M0.spend.json | 581 | b75d13c822185b0018022994b61a91da43b29d2d7fc81fc064ecf9ebf0b9c4e5 | meter / audit / log |
run record plain300_hosted_gemma4_26b_thinkon.spend.json | 585 | edf142de1bcf5a5effcd60f6bb17185a457dddc755a2e10bcd2cd240025311d3 | meter / audit / log |
run record scoreboard_partial_gemma4_thinkon.json | 100617 | 13b4c7d747377d1b54795d1cc08c50937afbd7cfc79e2ade691e942c7d67f2d3 | meter / audit / log |
| run report | 18655 | 558ccfeb6e5692e2e95627534be1d8dc2d68d749343417aee78bc6493764e070 | gemma2:2b on M2 (190 strict, 23.2% plain, 38.4% model reads method text) |